Lafarge Africa, Dangote Cement, and BUA Cement re-emerge as investor favourites amid stronger margins, pricing power, and volume growth.
Nigeria’s cement industry is poised for a solid rebound in 2025, driven by renewed infrastructure spending, improved pricing dynamics, and a more stable macroeconomic environment. Sector players are set to benefit from an expected surge in construction activity, enhanced operational efficiency, and lower exposure to currency volatility.
After grappling with years of uncertainty marked by FX depreciation, rising input costs, and sluggish public spending, the industrial goods (cement) sector is now regaining investor confidence. According to a fresh analysis by Cordros Research, Nigeria’s major cement producers—Lafarge Africa Plc (WAPCO), Dangote Cement Plc (DANGCEM), and BUA Cement Plc (BUACEMENT)—are transitioning into a new phase of growth, driven by structural reforms and a more supportive economic backdrop.
Cordros maintains a “BUY” rating for Lafarge Africa at NGN104.71 per share, citing strong revenue prospects, low debt levels, and a healthy balance sheet. Dangote Cement has been upgraded to “BUY” at NGN542.98 per share, reflecting projected earnings growth and margin expansion. BUA Cement, previously rated “SELL,” has now been upgraded to “HOLD” on expectations of subdued cost increases and a reduction in foreign exchange losses.
Infrastructure Spending to Propel Demand
The report projects total industry sales volume to rise by 7.0% year-on-year (y/y) to 33.94 million tonnes in 2025. The federal government’s capital expenditure budget for the year—raised by 69.9% y/y to NGN23.40 trillion, with NGN5.99 trillion earmarked for infrastructure—will likely act as a major catalyst for cement demand. In addition, increasing adoption of public-private partnerships (PPP) for road and housing projects is expected to further strengthen demand.
Lafarge Africa is projected to post the highest volume growth at 27.1% y/y to 6.41Mtpa. BUA Cement is expected to record a 12.9% increase to 9.53Mtpa, while Dangote Cement could see a 1.8% rise to 18.00Mtpa. Meanwhile, average cement prices are expected to climb by 24% y/y, following a sharp 54.4% jump in 2024.
Cost Optimisation, FX Stability Drive Earnings
Analysts forecast that earnings will grow faster than revenue in 2025, buoyed by cost optimisation measures such as the increased use of alternative fuels, local sourcing of raw materials, the rollout of CNG-powered trucks, and digital process automation.
These strategies are expected to improve margins and reduce exposure to FX-related losses—once a major drag on the sector. As a result, Lafarge’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecast to grow by 110% y/y to NGN13.06, Dangote Cement by 80.3% to NGN53.61, and BUA Cement by an impressive 295.9% to NGN8.64.
Sector Outlook Remains Positive Despite Risks
Cordros highlights four key drivers behind its bullish outlook: resilient infrastructure-led demand, sustained pricing strength, declining input costs, and currency stability. These factors, the report notes, far outweigh potential headwinds such as regulatory bottlenecks and uncertainties around fiscal policy execution.
“The combination of volume growth, pricing power, and margin expansion provides a compelling investment case for Nigeria’s cement sector in 2025,” the report stated.
Conclusion: From Recovery to Resurgence
As Nigeria doubles down on infrastructure development and economic diversification, its cement industry is regaining its footing. The renewed strength of key players and improving macroeconomic fundamentals indicate a sector no longer just in recovery, but on the verge of a major breakout.
With improved efficiency, rising profitability, and favourable government policy, cement manufacturers are not just building materials—they’re helping to build the future of Nigeria’s economy.
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