Global Air Cargo Demand Edges Up 2.2% in May Despite Trade Policy Hurdles – IATA

Global air cargo demand saw a modest year-on-year growth of 2.2% in May 2025, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), reinforcing the sector’s resilience despite mounting trade policy pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Total demand, according to the press released sent, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased compared to May 2024, with international operations growing by 3.0%. Cargo capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), rose by 2.0% year-on-year, including a 2.6% increase in international capacity.

“Air cargo demand globally grew 2.2% in May. That is encouraging news, especially as shifting U.S. trade policies contributed to a 10.7% decline in traffic on the Asia–North America trade lane,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Even as these policies evolve, the sector has demonstrated its ability to adapt quickly—re-routing shipments, accelerating deliveries, and holding back when necessary.”

Market Environment

The report notes a mixed economic environment:

• Global industrial production rose 2.6% in April 2025.
• Air cargo volumes surged 6.8% year-on-year for the same month, surpassing global goods trade growth, which stood at 3.8%.
• Jet fuel prices fell significantly, down 18.8% compared to May 2024 and 4.3% below April levels.
• However, global manufacturing activity weakened in May. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.1, indicating contraction, while export orders remained low at 48—partly due to recent changes in U.S. trade policy.

Regional Breakdown – May 2025

• Asia-Pacific: Recorded the strongest performance with an 8.3% increase in demand and 5.7% growth in capacity.
• North America: Posted the steepest decline, with demand falling by 5.8% and capacity down 3.2%.
• Europe: Saw a 1.6% increase in cargo demand and a 1.5% rise in capacity.
• Middle East: Notched a 3.6% rise in demand and a 4.2% increase in capacity.
• Latin America: Experienced 3.1% growth in demand, while capacity rose by 3.5%.
• Africa: Demand dropped by 2.1% despite a 2.7% increase in available capacity.

Trade Lane Performance

Air cargo trade routes showed varied performances:

• Asia–North America: Down 10.7% as front-loading strategies ahead of tariff changes eased and adjustments to the de-minimis exemption on small e-commerce packages took effect.
• Europe–Asia: Up 13.4%, continuing 27 months of uninterrupted growth.
• Middle East–Asia: Rose 10.8%, with growth sustained for a third consecutive month.
• Within Asia: Increased by 9.1%, marking 19 straight months of expansion.
• North America–Europe: Climbed 8.2%, the 16th consecutive month of growth.
• Africa–Asia: Fell sharply by 14.6%, raising concerns over trade flow dynamics.

Cargo Market Share (by CTK)

Based on 2024 full-year data, regional shares of the total global cargo market were:

• Asia-Pacific: 34.2%
• North America: 25.8%
• Europe: 21.5%
• Middle East: 13.6%
• Latin America: 2.9%
• Africa: 2.0%

Despite headwinds, IATA said the data illustrates air cargo’s essential role in adapting to evolving global trade flows.

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