For years, Nigeria’s telecom sector has been a beacon of innovation and growth in an economy burdened by fluctuating oil prices, currency instability, and youth unemployment. From Lagos to Lokoja, millions depend on mobile connectivity not just to communicate—but to work, learn, trade, bank, and survive.
But now, that same industry is under fresh scrutiny as the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) embarks on a sweeping Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA), a review process that could redefine how telecoms are governed, priced, and delivered in Nigeria.
The assessment, though technical in nature, is already sending ripples through the lives of everyday Nigerians, telecom workers, and industry operators who fear what the future may hold.
A Call for Reform, or Interference?
When Dr. Aminu Maida, the NCC’s Executive Vice Chairman, announced the Commission’s plans to evaluate existing and proposed regulations through the RIA framework, he framed it as a forward-looking, evidence-based move to ensure fair, effective, and efficient policies.
“We want to know if our rules are helping or hurting,” Maida told a gathering of stakeholders in Abuja. “We owe it to Nigerians to regulate based on data, not assumptions.”
On the surface, it’s a noble mission: analyze how current telecom policies affect investments, innovation, affordability, and consumer satisfaction. But beneath the policy jargon lies a deep tension between oversight and overreach.
The Quiet Worry on the Ground
In a cramped electronics shop in Surulere, Lagos, Olamide Bakare, a 34-year-old phone repairer, adjusts a customer’s SIM tray while listening to a podcast streamed over a mobile hotspot. For him, anything that affects mobile services or costs hits his livelihood directly.
“Sometimes, it’s not network that is bad, it’s the system. They will increase prices without notice, and who suffers? People like us,” he says, shaking his head.
Babatunde doesn’t know what a Regulatory Impact Assessment is—but he hopes it means better service and fewer sudden changes.
His story echoes across the country, from digital entrepreneurs in Abuja to farmers in Benue using mobile platforms for market access. At the center of it all is connectivity—and that’s what the NCC says it is trying to protect.
A Double-Edged Sword for Operators
Telecom operators, for their part, are caught in a delicate dance between expansion and survival. A senior executive at one of the major telcos, who asked not to be named, called the RIA a “necessary exercise” but warned it must not become a trap.
“Regulation is important, yes. But the cost of doing business is already insane—diesel, multiple taxes, right-of-way fees, forex challenges. We need support, not suffocation.”
The executive admitted that some of the Commission’s rules are outdated and require fresh thinking, especially with 5G, AI integration, and the explosive growth of digital services. But he also noted that reforms should encourage investment, not scare it away.
The People’s Perspective
For Azuka Agbata, a 27-year-old digital content creator in Enugu, the RIA could mean better clarity on data billing, privacy rights, and network quality.
“I work online. If the NCC is doing something to make these telcos behave better, I support it,” she said. “But only if it’s not just another policy that looks good on paper and does nothing.”
Her view reflects a growing public appetite for accountability, not just from service providers but also from regulators. People want to be heard, not herded.
Much Ado About Governance?
Critics of the RIA have argued that while it may be well-intentioned, the process could become bogged down in bureaucracy or used to justify policies that don’t reflect market realities. Some question the timing, coming at a moment when the economy is already fragile and telecoms are struggling with infrastructure deficits and thinning margins.
Yet others say that now is precisely the time to reform, before gaps become crises.
Professor Umar Danbatta, former NCC chief, offered a sobering reflection:
“When regulation stops evolving, it starts collapsing. The RIA is not just good governance
it’s responsible leadership.”
Looking Ahead: A Sector at a Crossroads
The telecom industry contributes roughly 14% to Nigeria’s GDP and underpins everything from fintech to healthcare to education. Over 220 million active lines, expanding 5G infrastructure, and growing demand for digital services make this sector one of Nigeria’s most consequential.
The NCC says the RIA process will conclude with a public consultation, inviting citizens, businesses, and civil society to offer input before final recommendations are published.
What happens next could redefine the very signal millions rely on daily.
Will the NCC’s RIA be a force for modernization—or will it be remembered as a misstep in a moment when the industry needed bold leadership?
Back in Surulere, Olamide offers a final thought as he finishes another SIM unlock:
“All I know is, just give us better service. We don’t want drama. Just make it work.”
And maybe, in that simple plea, lies the real impact the NCC must measure.
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