Inflation Dips, But Food Prices Still Squeeze Nigerians

For many Nigerians like Bukola Adeyemi, a schoolteacher and single mother in Ibadan, the latest inflation figures may look like good news on paper, but tell a different story at the market stalls.

“I heard they said inflation is dropping,” she says, waving her receipt from a local grocer. “But tomatoes are still expensive, rice is even worse, and now imported things like milk and cereal are out of reach again.”

Bukola is not alone in her skepticism. On Tuesday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 22.22% year-on-year in June, down from 22.97% in May. It’s the first meaningful drop in months, and a sign that the government’s tightening policies may be starting to bear fruit.

But the details paint a complex picture—especially for the average household that spends over 60% of income on food.

Food Prices Bite Harder

While headline inflation cooled, food inflation continued to climb, accelerating to 21.97% year-on-year, an 83 basis point increase. On a monthly basis, the jump was even sharper: 3.25% in June from 2.19% in May, driven largely by a spike in imported food prices, which surged 4.10% month-on-month.

“We’re seeing the same story everywhere,” says a food trader in Lagos’ Mile 12 Market. “Foreign products are more expensive because importers still face high costs. Even with a more stable naira, we’re not seeing much relief.”

Interestingly, prices for locally grown farm produce dropped by a dramatic 35.63% month-on-month, suggesting that the early green harvest is beginning to trickle into urban markets. Yet for many consumers, these gains are uneven, and often swallowed by rising transport and logistics costs.

Core Inflation Creeps Up Too

Beyond food, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also rose, reaching 22.26% year on year and 2.46% m/m, the highest in three months. The pressure came from several everyday essentials:

• Transport: Up 2.04% m/m, as fuel and fare prices remain high.
• ICT services: Up 2.72%, further stressing digital entrepreneurs and students.
• Insurance, furniture, and alcohol/tobacco products also registered noticeable hikes.

However, prices moderated in categories like healthcare (-83bps), education (-82bps), and restaurant services (-399bps), offering limited relief to certain households.

A Nation Living Paycheck to Paycheck

For millions of Nigerians, especially those earning in naira but spending in inflationary conditions, each new report is a reminder of the widening gap between economic statistics and lived realities.

“I manage a household of five on less than ₦120,000 a month,” says 56-year-old retiree in Minna. “Even if inflation slows, it doesn’t mean food gets cheaper overnight. We feel every naira spent.”

The monthly inflation rate, which rose modestly from 1.53% in May to 1.68% in June, further underscores the slow nature of price adjustment. Economists warn that until wage growth outpaces price increases, the real impact of inflation will continue to be deeply felt across homes and businesses.

Outlook: A Tentative Hope for July

Looking ahead, analysts are cautiously optimistic. July could bring further moderation in food inflation, thanks to the availability of seasonal produce like green maize, groundnuts, and vegetables from Nigeria’s Middle Belt and southern regions. These crops are already making their way to urban centers, helping stabilize market prices.

Furthermore, a more stable naira is helping lower import costs, particularly for processed and packaged goods.

Yet, major concerns remain. Insecurity in key northern food belts continues to hinder farming and transportation. Without improvements in rural safety and logistics, supply chain shocks could persist.

“There’s hope in the data,” says Bola Ojo, a Lagos-based economist. “But it’s fragile. Until we fix structural issues, like insecurity, energy supply, and transport costs, we’re always one shock away from another inflation spike.”

Bottom Line

The latest inflation numbers offer a rare but cautious sigh of relief for Nigerians battered by months of relentless price hikes. But as markets remain volatile and food prices continue to challenge household budgets, the question for many remains: Will the relief last—or is this just a mirage in the storm?

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