Factory Growth Flickers, But Cities Still Wait for a Boom

In its recently released Q1 2025 GDP report, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) unveiled a cautiously optimistic economic outlook: a 3.13% real GDP growth compared to 2.27% in the same period last year. But beneath the encouraging figures lies a story that reflects both the promise and the persistent struggle of Nigeria’s economic recovery, particularly for the everyday Nigerian in the city and on the farm.

One standout statistic is the manufacturing sector’s modest 1.69% growth, which now accounts for 9.62% of the GDP. While this suggests a slow but steady revival of industrial activity, experts say the pace is too sluggish to bring about a significant shift in Nigeria’s urban employment landscape.

A Glimpse of Hope for Factory Workers

In Lagos’ bustling industrial corridor in Ikeja, 29-year-old factory technician Bakare David  shared what this growth means for workers like him. “We’ve seen a few more shifts added at our plant,” he says. “There’s talk about hiring again, but the salaries haven’t really improved.”

David’s story reflects the fragile state of the sector. According to an industrial economist at the University of Nigeria Nsukka, manufacturing’s growth is positive but far from transformative.

“What we’re seeing is marginal. Nigeria needs sustained double-digit growth in manufacturing over several quarters to truly reshape job markets, raise incomes, and reduce urban poverty,” noted.

Manufacturing: Still an Engine in Need of Fuel

Manufacturing has long been touted as the key to economic diversification, especially amid volatility in the oil sector. But challenges such as erratic power supply, high interest rates, and policy inconsistency continue to weigh down the sector.

“For SMEs in manufacturing, access to credit remains a bottleneck,” said Executive Director of the Nigerian Association of Small-Scale Industrialists. “Even with new production orders, many businesses can’t scale because of funding and logistics challenges.”

The impact of these challenges means that while the sector is expanding, the benefits aren’t reaching wide enough. For thousands of urban youths looking for work, the opportunities remain limited, and wages stagnant.

Ripple Effects Across the Economy

Celestine Ukpong an economist and investor based in Lagos added that beyond manufacturing, the Services sector remains the backbone of Nigeria’s current economic growth. Its strong performance has lifted the overall GDP figure, indirectly supporting retail, logistics, and digital sectors.

Still, he continues, the full picture shows that many Nigerians are yet to feel the weight of macroeconomic improvements in their daily lives. While the GDP report offers a technical view of progress, the true test lies in how this translates into food on the table, stable jobs, and accessible healthcare.

As Abuja-based economic policy analyst Adamu Musa puts it, “We must always ask: who is this growth for? Until GDP growth is mirrored by inclusive job creation and rising living standards, especially in urban centers, then we are not yet where we need to be.”

Looking Ahead

With inflation still a concern and consumer spending under pressure, experts believe government policy must now shift from celebration of growth statistics to targeted intervention in job-creating sectors.

The modest uptick in manufacturing could be the first sign of a turnaround, if nurtured correctly. For factory workers like David, and for millions of Nigerians hustling to get by, the hope is that this is just the beginning of something bigger.

But as the data shows, hope needs policy, investment, and resilience to become reality.

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