When Nigeria’s most ambitious industrialist, Aliko Dangote, announced his foray into fuel distribution—on the heels of launching Africa’s largest single-train refinery, many hailed it as the nation’s long-awaited economic breakthrough. But beneath the celebration, a quiet unease has been growing among fuel marketers, station owners, and economic experts: Is Nigeria slipping from a state monopoly into a private one?
That was the core of a spirited conversation aired on a national morning show recently, where two experts—Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), and Professor Ken Ife, a leading economist—sat across from each other, bound by patriotism but divided by the weight of worry and optimism.
“We Applaud, But We’re Also Anxious”
“I raise my shoulders anywhere in the world with pride because of Dangote,” Dr. Gillis-Harry opened, his voice firm yet layered with concern. “But after clapping, must I go hungry?”
He represents thousands of independent fuel marketers, many of whom run modest stations across Nigeria’s urban sprawl and remote towns. Their fear is not unwarranted. Dangote’s move into distribution means that he is not just refining fuel, he is also selling it directly, potentially controlling pricing, supply, and access.
“Our members are on the last mile,” Dr. Harry said, “We serve the end users. But we are beginning to suffer from unclear pricing systems. If we buy at N928 today and the price drops to N905 tomorrow, we’re already in the red before the product hits the pump.”
He reflected on the human toll: small business owners losing credit lines, staff salaries delayed, tanker drivers parked indefinitely, and outlets forced to shut down in silence.
Economist Warns of New-Age Monopoly
Professor Ken Ife, reflecting on four decades of oil-sector evolution in Nigeria, didn’t mince words about the systemic failures that necessitated private investment like Dangote’s.
“Let’s not forget how we got here,” he began. “The NNPC was once an octopus, regulator and operator. We fought for over 20 years for the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to untangle that mess.”
But Ife pointed out that post-PIA, Nigeria may have simply passed the baton of monopoly from public to private hands. He warned of the refinery’s location in a Free Trade Zone, which legally exempts it from domestic supply obligations.
“Dangote can choose to sell everything abroad if he wants. That’s dangerous,” he said. “We need a structure where refineries compete, not dominate.”
Still, he acknowledged the refinery’s value. “This is a businessman who put skin in the game. But we must ensure that in fixing one problem, we don’t create another, especially at the cost of millions of livelihoods.”
Small Players, Big Impact
Dr. Harry emphasized the significance of smaller marketers: “It’s not one giant that grows the economy. It’s thousands of small players, those with two, four, or even 36 pumps, who provide the real stability.”
He recalled recent industry pain points, fuel adulteration during past administrations, tanks flooded with water, and vehicle engines damaged. “We bore the brunt. Consumers didn’t blame Dangote or NNPC. They blamed us. We can’t be both victims and scapegoats.”
The Need for Symbiosis, Not Supremacy
Despite fears, both experts offered a path forward: collaboration, not confrontation.
“Dangote must work with others in the value chain,” Dr. Harry said. “We’re not asking for favors. We’re asking not to be crushed.”
Professor Ife proposed a broader vision: “We need more refineries. Dangote shouldn’t be the only one. Government must actively encourage competition and sell off idle assets.”
He also called on regulators like NMDPRA to enforce predictable pricing structures. “Today, price shifts are erratic. In America, you drive a few blocks for 10-cent differences. Here, it’s N30 or N50 overnight. That destroys planning.”
Real People, Real Risks
For many fuel marketers, this isn’t about market theory, it’s about survival.
Amedu Bala, a station owner at Ankpa LGA, Kogi State shared his frustration: “I paid for a truck of fuel last week. Before it even reached my station, Dangote dropped the price. I lost nearly N500,000 overnight. My bank doesn’t care if the market shifts. They want their money.”
Similarly, zainlani Muhammed, who operates two outlets in Kaduna, lamented, “We used to restock every week. Now, I wait, watch prices, and pray. My staff are asking if they’ll still have jobs next month.”
A Crossroads for Reform
While Dangote’s refinery has undoubtedly positioned Nigeria for greater self-reliance in fuel production, the larger question looms: Will the sector evolve into a competitive, equitable market, or will it become another version of centralized control?
For now, stakeholders call for balance, fair regulation, and open dialogue. There is pride in what Nigeria has achieved, but as Dr. Harry poignantly put it: “After pride, let’s not face poverty.”
Experts Agree:
- Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry (PETROAN): “We welcome Dangote, but not at the expense of thousands of retailers who built this industry.”
- Prof. Ken Ife (Economist): “A monopoly—public or private’is dangerous. The market must serve all Nigerians.”
Human Cost:
- Job losses, unstable pricing, business closures, and financial strain are becoming daily realities for small players in the downstream sector.
What’s Needed:
- Stronger regulatory oversight, stakeholder inclusion, competitive pricing, and expansion of refining capacity.
The road to reform is long, but for millions in the fuel trade, it’s no longer a policy debate. It’s a matter of economic survival.
@2025 The Ameh News: All Rights Reserved
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