The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has given Nigeria a reason to hope—but not yet to celebrate. In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report titled “Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s growth forecast to 3.4% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026, citing signs of resilience in key sectors.
This marks a notable improvement from the previous projections of 3.0% and 2.7% respectively, released just months earlier in April. But for millions of Nigerians facing power blackouts, rising food prices, and economic uncertainty, the question remains: When will these numbers begin to change lives?
Economic Growth Meets Everyday Reality
For a female food vendor in Lagos, talk of GDP means little unless her business can grow without constant power disruptions and inflation pressures.
“I’ve been hearing about growth for years, but things just keep getting harder,” she said. “If we are really growing, why is rice now twice the price it was two years ago? Why do we still depend on generators daily?”
Her voice reflects the disconnect between economic projections and real-world progress, a gap experts say must be closed if growth is to be meaningful.
Experts Warn: Reforms Must Follow Forecasts
While the IMF’s upgrade signals a more positive outlook, economic analysts have sounded a note of caution.
Renowned economist and Managing Director of a leading financial consultancy firm, stressed that the upgraded forecast will only be impactful if accompanied by deep reforms, particularly in the power and infrastructure sectors.
“Economic growth without electricity is like running a marathon in chains,” he noted. “The forecast shows potential, but unless Nigeria fixes its power crisis, these projections will remain figures in a report, not improvements in people’s lives.”
Expert also warned that persistent structural inefficiencies,such as weak public institutions and poor policy implementation, could stall the positive momentum.
IMF’s Broader Message: Reform or Risk Setback
The IMF echoed these concerns in its report, urging Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, to urgently pursue structural and institutional reforms. It highlighted the region’s vulnerability to external shocks, inflationary pressures, and public debt accumulation.
For Nigeria, the Fund called for stronger fiscal management, broader tax reform, and targeted investments in social infrastructure to ensure growth reaches the grassroots.
Hope Hinges on Human-Centered Policies
A policy analyst and lecturer at the University of Abuja, in her reaction, emphasized the need to shift focus from growth for its own sake to growth that prioritizes the people.
“GDP growth is good, but it doesn’t feed children or power homes,” she said. “We need investments that create jobs, boost productivity, and improve public services. Only then will Nigerians start to feel the effects of growth.”
Looking Ahead
As Nigeria gears up for its 2025 fiscal planning cycle, the revised growth figures offer a moment of optimism, but also a clear call to action.
The challenge for policymakers will be turning this statistical promise into widespread prosperity. For a female food vendor and millions like her, real progress will not be measured in decimals, but in dignity, stability, and daily relief.
“Let them fix electricity, transportation ecosystems, and food prices,” she said. “That’s when I’ll know we’re truly moving forward.”
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