Global passenger air traffic growth slowed to 2.6% in June 2025, a noticeable dip compared to recent months, according to new data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The decline has been attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and a growing gap between airline capacity and actual passenger demand.
The report, released by IATA on Wednesday, shows that total revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—a key measure of air travel demand—increased by 2.6% year-on-year. However, total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), rose faster at 3.4%. As a result, the global load factor dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 84.5%, indicating slightly lower aircraft occupancy.
“Demand growth is still strong, but June’s 2.6% year-on-year increase is below the trend we’ve seen in recent months,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “This reflects the impact of military conflict in the Middle East. With capacity growing faster than demand, global load factors dipped. However, at 84.5%, they remain near historic highs.”
International Traffic: Regional Disparities Widen
International travel demand rose by 3.2% in June compared to the same month last year. However, all regions experienced a decline in load factors due to capacity expansion outpacing demand.
The Middle East was hit hardest, recording a 0.4% drop in demand and a 1.2 percentage point drop in load factor to 78.7%. IATA cited military conflicts as a major factor, particularly noting a sharp 7% decline in traffic on routes connecting the Middle East and North America.
Elsewhere, Asia-Pacific airlines continued to lead recovery efforts with a 7.2% increase in international traffic and a load factor of 82.9%. European carriers reported a 2.8% uptick in demand, while Latin American airlines saw a robust 9.3% rise. North American airlines posted a marginal 0.3% decline in international demand.
African airlines experienced a 0.3% decrease in traffic, with a flat capacity growth and a load factor of just 74.6%, the lowest among all regions. Analysts say this may reflect intensifying competition from Middle Eastern and European carriers on key routes.
Domestic Travel: Brazil, China, and India Post Strong Growth
Domestic markets showed mixed results. Overall domestic RPKs rose by 1.6% in June, with a 2.1% increase in capacity. This caused the global domestic load factor to dip slightly to 84.7%.
Brazil stood out as the strongest domestic performer with a 14.7% increase in passenger traffic. China and India followed with 3.8% and 5.4% growth, respectively.
The U.S. domestic market, which accounts for over one-third of global domestic air traffic, saw only a 0.1% rise in demand—its first positive movement in four months. Australia and Japan also posted modest gains.
| Domestic Market Highlights (YoY) | RPK Growth | ASK Growth | Load Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | +14.7% | +17.0% | 83.0% |
| China | +3.8% | +3.0% | 83.1% |
| India | +5.4% | +9.0% | 84.3% |
| U.S. | +0.1% | +1.8% | 86.0% |
| Australia | +0.9% | +1.5% | 81.1% |
| Japan | +2.9% | -0.3% | 75.3% |
Outlook: Load Factors Expected to Hold Through Summer
Despite the slower growth, IATA remains optimistic that strong load factors will continue through the Northern Hemisphere’s peak travel season. With only a 1.8% increase in capacity scheduled for August, airlines are likely to maintain near-record occupancy levels.
IATA, which represents about 350 airlines accounting for over 80% of global air traffic, continues to monitor global trends closely. The organization emphasizes the need for prudent capacity planning amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile travel patterns.
“We’re still in a strong position,” Walsh added. “But with geopolitical instability and uneven regional performance, airlines will need to stay agile in the months ahead.”
@2025 The Ameh News: All Rights Reserved
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