In the first half of 2024, Nigeria’s non-oil export sector had begun showing signs of renewed strength. Export revenues stood at $2.696 billion, with 3.83 million metric tonnes of goods shipped abroad — a healthy rebound but still far from the scale needed to reshape the country’s foreign exchange profile. Debt servicing at the state level, meanwhile, cost ₦139.92 billion, a burden that was heavy but relatively manageable.
Fast forward to the first half of 2025, and the picture is dramatically different — a year that is proving to be both a triumph and a warning for Nigeria’s economy.
On the upside, the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has announced that non-oil exports surged to $3.225 billion, a 19.59 per cent leap in value compared to the same period last year. Export volumes rose to 4.04 million metric tonnes, buoyed by booming demand from emerging markets like India, Brazil, Vietnam, and African trading partners. NEPC Executive Director/CEO, Nonye Ayeni, described the performance as proof that diversification policies are working.
“I am pleased to inform you that non-oil products exported in the first half of 2025 were valued at $3.225bn. This shows an increase of 19.59 per cent as against the sum of $2.696bn recorded for the first half of the year 2024,” Ayeni said while presenting the council’s progress report in Abuja.
But the celebration is tempered by sobering fiscal realities at the subnational level. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveal that states spent a combined ₦235.58 billion servicing external debt in H1 2025 — a staggering 68.4 per cent jump from ₦139.92 billion just a year earlier. The ₦95.65 billion increase reflects the punishing effect of a weaker naira on dollar-denominated obligations.
Under Nigeria’s Irrevocable Standing Payment Order (ISPO) arrangement, these repayments are made directly by the Federal Government on behalf of states, deducted at source from their monthly Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements before funds even reach state treasuries.
Reflection:
H1 2024 was a year of cautious optimism; H1 2025 is a year of extremes. The country’s non-oil export growth offers a clear path to greater resilience, yet the debt servicing surge is a stark reminder of structural vulnerabilities that cannot be ignored.
The gains from export diversification risk being undermined by the relentless drain of external debt repayments. For policymakers, the lesson is clear: the next phase of economic management must not only grow export earnings but also shield them from being swallowed by the cost of debt in a volatile currency environment.
If Nigeria can balance its trade successes with disciplined debt strategy, 2025 may yet be remembered as the year the country learned to turn export windfalls into lasting fiscal stability.
@2025 The Ameh News: All Rights Reserved
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