Airtel Africa Q1-26: Revenue Up 22%, EPS Surges 18-Fold, Target Price Rises

Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) has kicked off 2026 with an impressive financial performance, posting robust Q1 results through the the Nigerian exchange limited during the week that underscore its growing dominance across the continent’s telecom landscape. The company recorded a 22.4% year-on-year revenue growth, expanded its EBITDA margin by 276 basis points to 48.0%, and delivered a remarkable earnings per share (EPS) surge of 18.32x compared to the same period last year.

Following these results, Cordros Research raised its target price for AIRTELAFRI by 11.7% to NGN3,930.47 per share from NGN3,519.61, while maintaining a “BUY” recommendation. The valuation uplift reflects a stronger-than-expected EBITDA margin forecast of 47.9%, fueled by anticipated revenue growth of 21% underpinned by sustained pricing momentum and modest currency gains across select markets, against projected total expense growth of 17%.

The earnings outlook is broadly positive across Airtel Africa’s key markets. Revenue growth projections were notably revised upward for Francophone Africa to 10.7% year-on-year, thanks to favorable currency movements. This offsets moderated forecasts for Nigeria (39.4% vs. previous 53.1%) and East Africa (5.9% vs. previous 6.9%), reflecting slightly lower ARPU assumptions. Segment performance remains strong, with data revenue expected to rise 21.4%, voice 10.5%, mobile money 52.4%, and other services 16.8%. Airtel Africa’s customer base expanded 6.8% year-on-year to 177.66 million subscribers, with 81.28 million data subscribers and 48.54 million mobile money users. The blended ARPU climbed 12.1% to USD2.47.

Beyond immediate earnings, 2026 is shaping up as a pivotal year for Airtel Africa’s financial health. The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rebound sharply to 21.2%, surpassing the 2025FY figure of 11.8% and the five-year historical average of 12.1%. Analysts expect ROE to average 23.6% between 2026 and 2030, reflecting a structural uplift in capital efficiency, driven by strong topline growth, EBITDA margin gains, and a decline in foreign exchange losses.

From a valuation standpoint, the NGN3,930.47 target price combines discounted cash flow and sector-relative multiples, integrating both FCFF and FCFE models, as well as EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples relative to regional peers. On these estimates, Airtel Africa is trading at a 2026E P/E of 7.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, signaling significant upside for investors.

Cordros Research’s analysts conclude that Airtel Africa’s strong start to 2026, coupled with structural improvements in profitability and shareholder returns, positions the telecom giant for sustained growth across the continent, restoring confidence among investors and stakeholders alike.