The Ameh News Editorial: Monopoly or Progress? Rethinking the Dangote Refinery Debate 1

The Meaning of Monopoly in Capital Investment

Monopoly, in economic terms, is when a single company dominates the supply and pricing of a product or service, leaving little room for competition. In capital-intensive industries,  oil refining, telecommunications, cement production, monopoly often arises when one investor takes on risks that others avoid.

The Dangote Refinery is a textbook case. After decades of failed government refineries and reluctance from private players, one investor poured over $20 billion into building Africa’s largest single-train refinery. In such circumstances, monopoly is not a scheme to cripple competition; it is the natural outcome of bold investment in a sector everyone else abandoned.

The Cabal’s Fear and the Nation’s Hope

Those who raise monopoly fears argue that depending on a single refinery exposes Nigeria to pricing and supply risks. They worry that Dangote could hold undue leverage over government and marketers. But this argument misses a critical point: without Dangote, Nigeria would still be importing fuel at crippling costs, bleeding scarce foreign exchange, and sustaining an endless cycle of subsidy politics.

The so-called cabal benefits from the old order, importation, rent-seeking, and inefficiency. Their resistance to the refinery’s dominance is less about protecting consumers and more about protecting entrenched interests. The real question is whether Nigeria wants progress or stagnation.

Monopoly in the Absence of Action

Monopoly is not inherently a hindrance. In fact, in industries where “nobody is doing anything,” monopoly often becomes the engine of change. It is better to have one refinery operating at world-class scale than to have four state-owned refineries rotting away. It is better to have one investor carry the weight of risk than to have a vacuum where the entire nation suffers.

History shows that monopoly can spark industries. The early days of telecommunications in Nigeria were dominated by a few players; competition only followed when investors saw that the market could be profitable. The same story is unfolding in oil refining. Dangote’s dominance may be temporary, but it has already shifted Nigeria’s petroleum narrative from dependency to self-sufficiency.

The Way Forward

Nigeria must embrace the refinery’s success, while also creating policies that encourage new entrants. Monopoly should be viewed as a stepping stone, not an endpoint. Regulation, transparency, and fair access to crude supply will ensure that monopoly does not harden into abuse of power.

The refinery should be seen as progress in motion, not as a threat. If nobody else dared to invest, why should the bold investor be punished for succeeding?

Monopoly, in the Nigerian context, is not the villain it is painted to be. When everyone else is sitting on the sidelines, monopoly is not a hindrance but the price of progress. The Ameh News Editorial Board argues that Nigeria must embrace bold capital investments, regulate fairly, and see monopoly not as a curse, but as a catalyst for change. The real danger lies not in one company refining petroleum, but in a nation where nobody builds, nobody risks, and nobody moves forward.

For Nigeria to truly thrive, we must celebrate investment that breaks barriers, even if it wears the temporary cloak of monopoly.

— The Ameh News Editorial Board