There seems to be some mathematical acrobatics going on between the World Bank and the Federal Government of Nigeria on the issue of the correct number of people who are poor in the country. The World Bank says 139 million, but Abuja says babu! It believes that with the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) scheme, poverty has been given an uppercut! True?
Many Nigerians are labouring to unravel the real reason Omoyele Sowore decided to organise the #FreeNnamdiKanuNow protest. Any idea?
The World Bank’s arithmetic unsettles Abuja.
The World Bank and the Federal Government of Nigeria seem to be entangled in arithmetical acrobatics.
Both seem to employ mathematics to explain the Nigerian state of poverty. While the World Bank believes that the cup is half empty, Abuja insists the cup is half full. It is a controversy over the level of poverty in Nigeria.
The World Bank recently came up with a report stating that about 139 million people were being driven into poverty by the government’s policies.
Although the report acknowledged that the reforms embarked upon by the Federal Government were in order and necessary if the country was expected to make economic progress, it pointed out that they have driven a lot of people into poverty.
What the World Bank was simply saying is that it is foolhardy for a farmer to say that, since he did not have a bumper harvest this year, his entire family would starve as he ploughs back all the harvest for an expected bumper harvest in the coming year.
The danger in such a decision, the World Bank tried to tell Nigerian leaders, was that such a farmer might be expecting a bumper harvest next year, but he risked losing all members of his family through starvation if appropriate balancing was not done. Simply put, while saving for the next planting season, enough must be left to sustain the household till the next harvest. It is about balancing reform and citizens’ basic necessities!
The global bank recommended that the government should focus on social protection programmes, job creation, and agricultural productivity to cushion the effects on vulnerable citizens.
This was also the same advice that Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), gave President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in August.
Okonjo-Iweala waxed diplomatic in her assessment of the current administration’s efforts, particularly with the slew of reforms since 2023. She commended the FG but in the same breath said there was a need to provide a safety net for the people.
She had advised the President to implement stronger social safety nets to help citizens cope with the hardship caused by economic reforms.
The world-acclaimed economist stressed that social support programmes were crucial alongside economic growth to ensure the reforms do not disproportionately harm the poor and the vulnerable.
While observers said that Okonjo-Iweala did not want to be seen as being political and decided to dwell on the part of wisdom, those in government quarters celebrated what they called a great endorsement.
So, when the World Bank’s “bomb” exploded, the Federal Government said the economic indices applied by the world body to arrive at its judgement were not only faulty but jaundiced. There were lots of pushbacks, and it was clear that Aso Rock was thoroughly miffed by the report.
Don’t forget that the 2022 Nigeria Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) survey revealed that Nigeria had a high rate of multidimensional poverty, with 63 percent of its population (approximately 133 million people) being multidimensionally poor.
What the classification meant was that the citizens experienced deprivations across health, education, and living standards, which include factors like clean cooking fuel, sanitation, and food insecurity. It was also discovered that the prevalence of poverty was higher in rural areas (72 percent) than in urban areas (42 percent).
In the World Bank report, Abuja flatly rejected the 139 million figure, describing it as an “exaggerated statistical interpretation.” It stated that its economic reforms were in a recovery phase and that more people were benefiting than the report suggested.
Sunday Dare, special adviser on Media and Public Communication, said that the figure was “unrealistic” and a “global projection” rather than a real-time count. According to him, the figure was derived from an outdated global poverty line ($2.15/day) and did not accurately reflect current conditions in Nigeria, particularly because, when converted to local currency, it exceeds the new minimum wage. The presidency maintained that the government’s poverty reduction efforts were on the right track.
The Federal Government wondered where the World Bank got its figures from. It is believed that the Conditional Cash Transfer scheme must have made a serious impact in reducing the tally of poor people across the country. Under the cash transfer programme, Abuja said that 15 households, or 75 million individuals, were targeted. The beneficiary families receive N25,000 every month.
But there have been criticisms arising, not only of the scheme as it concerns the criteria for selection of beneficiaries, but also the opacity and the transparency of disbursement, which are also of grave concern.
Although the government might be well-intentioned about the scheme, there are middlemen who profiteer from it. Critics alleged that it appears the scheme is tailored along party patronage.
Allegations are legion that the middlemen collect the necessary data from people, compile the same and send it to the relevant quarters. The money is released to these middlemen, who now decide what amount to send to the intended beneficiaries.
“A few people attest to having received these handouts, but the majority of Nigerians cannot even point to anyone in their neighbourhood whom they know who has benefited.”
The Federal Government is always thrilled to announce that several billions of Naira have so far been spent on the scheme. Nigerians were told that a whopping sum of N330 billion has been disbursed under the programme since the Tinubu administration came on board.
Nigerians are not new to these so-called cash transfers. It featured prominently during the regime of the late president Muhammadu Buhari when the then vice president Yemi Osinbajo moved from market to market in the South West geopolitical zone, sharing N5000. This was done particularly toward the re-election period in 2019.
There were also reports that some families in the North actually received fund transfers under a skewed arrangement supervised by the then Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Sadiya Umar Farouq.
She was the pioneer minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development, who told bewildered Nigerians that N500 million was spent on a school feeding programme in two states and Abuja during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) lockdown when schoolchildren were with their parents at home.
The minister insisted that a total of 382,765 pupils, 124,589 households, and 2,859 schools in Ogun, Lagos, and Abuja benefited from the school feeding programme during the COVID-19 lockdown.
It would seem that things are not adding up in the distribution of funds in the country. It would seem also that those saddled with the responsibility of distributing the largesse normally help themselves with it.
Many Nigerians have also argued that the amount being distributed is not capable of adding to anybody’s life.
What the World Bank report simply means is that 139 million Nigerians were living below the poverty line. This also means that 139 million people have a limited income and insufficient financial resources to afford basic necessities like food, housing, and healthcare. This is determined by a specific income threshold, which is set nationally and internationally.
For example, in Nigeria, the national poverty line is ₦137,430 ($381.75) per year, and the international poverty line is set at $2.15 per day (as of 2018/19).
Going by the current exchange rate of N1,470/$, it would mean that 139 million Nigerians do not live on N3,200 a day!
This is not surprising with the growing number of beggars in the country and the penchant of many citizens to take extreme risks in search of daily bread.
On Tuesday, news broke that about 30 people lost their lives, while over 40 others sustained various degrees of injuries as they were scooping fuel from a fallen tanker in Niger State. For people to ignore all the warnings and risk their lives in an effort to take a deadly opportunity can only be motivated by poverty.
Nobody with a reasonable means of livelihood would risk his or her life scooping fuel from an accidented tanker.
Beyond the mathematical gymnastics between the World Bank and the Federal Government on the number of people in the poverty net, what Abuja should focus on is ensuring that no Nigerian citizen goes to bed without food and that none is without shelter.
Only then shall we have been able to make it difficult for global attention to be focused on us in a bad light.
Sowore’s curious love for Kanu
Many Nigerians are becoming more probing than ever. In the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), many people no longer swallow information hook, line and sinker.
That was the level of curiosity that greeted the news that Omoyele Sowore, a human rights activist and former presidential candidate, was mobilising support for a rally geared towards releasing Nnamdi Kanu.
Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), has been in detention since he was extradited from Kenya in June 2021.
Sowore had urged Nigerians to join the #FreeNnamdiKanuNow nationwide protest despite a court order restricting demonstrations around key government areas in Abuja.
Many people expressed skepticism over the selflessness of the activist in embarking on the protest in a country where people have become more transactional than ever. Before the protest march, a lot of debate had raged on in the social media space.
Many Nigerians had given various interpretations of the alleged reasons behind the move by Sowore to champion the cause.
Some political and business meanings were read in Sowore’s efforts. Again, although the protest was supposed to have lasted for some days, the team seemed to have been cowed easily by security agents. The protesters scampered on the first day and never regrouped. Why? Why did they not push through, particularly after some of the participants were arrested?
Why was it that it was Sowore who galvanised the protest? Was it for a photo op or showmanship?
Was the protest indeed geared toward releasing Nnamdi Kanu or to achieve some other purpose? A lot of questions are being asked out there about the real motivation for the exercise. Someone asked the other day, “Is Sowore also among the prophets?”
And now that some of the protesters are behind bars, what’s next? Case closed? What then has been achieved? Or was the protest just for the fulfillment of all righteousness? Such questions can only be answered by Sowore.
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