The release of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) third-quarter 2025 Chief Executive Officers’ Confidence Index (MCCI) has reignited debate over the true state of Nigeria’s economic recovery.
While the MCCI recorded a modest rise from 50.3 in Q2 to 50.7 in Q3 2025, signaling cautious optimism among industrial leaders, many ordinary Nigerians say the signs of improvement remain distant from their daily realities.
At the official report presentation in Lagos, Otunba Francis Meshioye, OFR, President of MAN, emphasized that the manufacturing sector remains pivotal to Nigeria’s long-term growth. Yet, he warned that persistent structural bottlenecks, ranging from unstable power supply to high inflation, continue to threaten industrial competitiveness.
“Through evidence-based advocacy and strategic partnerships, MAN has contributed significantly to the evolution of pro-manufacturing policies,” Meshioye said, referencing MAN’s flagship publications such as the Blueprint 2.0, the Bi-Annual Economic Review, and the MCCI itself.
He, however, stressed that for the sector to thrive, government reforms must move from policy talk to real implementation.
Echoing this sentiment, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, mni, Director General of MAN, described the MCCI as a “barometer of manufacturer sentiment,” noting that while the index’s slight rise reflects cautious optimism, it remains below the 50-point neutral mark—signaling that confidence is still fragile.
“Our members are hopeful but not yet satisfied,” Ajayi-Kadir explained. “High energy costs, volatile exchange rates, and limited credit access still weigh heavily on manufacturers.”
Expert Voices: Hope in the Numbers, Pain on the Streets
Economists and financial analysts have reacted with mixed feelings to MAN’s findings.
Mr Celestine Ukpong, a Lagos-based economist and investor-savvy analyst, described the MCCI’s uptick as “a technical rebound rather than a full recovery.”
“Many manufacturers feel slightly encouraged by policy signals, but the average Nigerian has not yet felt this recovery. When consumer demand remains weak, it undermines any progress made at the top,” Ukpong said. He emphasized that without power stability, affordable credit, and forex consistency, the recovery could falter.
Similarly, Mr. Peter Adebayo, a chartered accountant and financial consultant, cautioned against over-celebrating the data. “A rise from 50.3 to 50.7 is numerically small but symbolically important. It shows direction, not transformation,” Adebayo said.
He noted that for true recovery, productivity, job creation, and purchasing power must improve simultaneously. “Factories need steady power and affordable loans, and citizens need to earn enough to buy what is produced. That’s when growth becomes real,” he added.
Street-Level Reality: ‘Numbers Don’t Buy Food’
Away from boardrooms and policy briefings, the sentiment on Nigerian streets remains one of cautious skepticism.
At Oshodi Market in Lagos, textile trader Mrs. Oge Nwankwo voiced frustration: “If manufacturers are happy, we haven’t seen it here. Prices rise every week, and customers now buy less.”
In Abuja, commercial driver Mr. Ademu Lawal shared a similar view: “They say the economy is improving, but my daily fuel expenses have tripled. Fares are up, but people can’t pay. Where is the recovery?”
Small business owners are equally concerned. Ali Musa, who runs an agro-processing startup in Lokoja, said on telephone conversation that high loan rates and unstable power make expansion nearly impossible. “We want to grow, but generators and diesel eat our profits. The government must match policy with infrastructure,” he said.
Measuring Recovery Beyond the Data
Analysts agree that while MAN’s improved index indicates renewed business confidence, recovery must ultimately be measured by how it affects ordinary citizens who does purchase of made in Nigeria goods.
According to experts, the true symptoms of an economic ecosystem’s recovery include:
- Stable prices and slower inflation, allowing families to plan.
- Increased employment and business activity, especially among SMEs.
- Stronger naira and predictable exchange rates, reducing import costs.
- Improved access to affordable credit and stable electricity.
- Rising consumer confidence, reflected in greater market activity.
Ukpong summarized it aptly: “Recovery should be visible, in market prices, in jobs, in confidence. When Nigerians stop talking about survival and start talking about investment, that’s when we’ll know the economy has truly healed.”
A Call for Real Reform and Inclusive Growth
MAN’s leadership insists that Nigeria’s path to sustainable recovery must prioritize manufacturing-led industrialization, backed by coherent fiscal and monetary reforms.
Otunba Meshioye reaffirmed MAN’s readiness to collaborate with government and stakeholders to drive meaningful change. “A nation that neglects manufacturing may grow in numbers but not in wealth. Real growth begins when raw potential is refined into productive capacity,” he said.
For now, the story of Nigeria’s recovery remains a tale of two realities: one of cautious optimism among manufacturers and policymakers, and another of persistent hardship for ordinary citizens. Bridging that divide, experts say, will determine whether Nigeria’s fragile rebound evolves into lasting economic transformation.
MAN’s Q3 2025 Confidence Index shows cautious optimism in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, but economists Celestine Ukpong and Peter Adebayo warn that street-level realities tell a harsher story as Nigerians await tangible signs of recovery.
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