…..Telecom analysts and market watchers say MTNN’s strengthened fundamentals, rising cash flows, and aggressive data-led growth justify a bullish outlook.
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) has recorded another strong performance with its 9M-2025 unaudited results, reporting 57.5% year-on-year revenue growth, a 15.1 percentage-point jump in EBITDA margin to 51.4%, and an EPS of NGN35.77.
The company’s impressive run was driven by accelerated data demand, a rebounding subscriber base, pricing adjustments, and cost efficiencies resulting from naira appreciation, a cooling inflation environment, and revised tower lease deals.
Following the results, analysts have upwardly revised MTNN’s year-end target price by 4.6% to NGN616.07/share, maintaining a “BUY” recommendation that signals confidence in the stock’s growth prospects. The new valuation suggests a 29.7% upside from its current trading price of NGN475.00 (as of Nov 18, 2025).
Experts React: ‘A Strong Comeback Story, Anchored by Data’
Telecom and financial market experts say MTN Nigeria’s numbers underscore the operator’s resilience and ability to navigate macroeconomic shocks.
Dr. Hassan Idris, Telecom Economist at the Centre for Digital Infrastructure Development, described MTNN’s performance as a “case study in operational discipline.”
“MTN has demonstrated that Nigeria’s data economy remains vastly underpenetrated and full of monetisation potential. The return to a 51% EBITDA margin shows management’s focus on cost optimisation is paying off. It is one of the strongest operational rebounds we’ve seen since the FX crisis.”
Similarly, equity research analyst, said the revised target price reflects MTNN’s improving fundamentals.
“What investors should watch is the strength of MTNN’s free cash flow. A projected 9.9% FCF yield and an 18.7% free cash flow margin signal a more efficient business capable of sustaining dividends and reinvestments. At 4.5x EV/EBITDA, the stock is undervalued compared to regional telecom peers.”
Another market watcher, fixed-income strategist, highlighted the impact of falling interest rates:
“The lower risk-free rate and a stronger naira environment are working in MTN’s favor. Net finance costs dropping more than 70% is a major tailwind. If this trend continues into 2026, MTN could see an even stronger earnings cycle.”
Key Drivers of MTNN’s Strong Results
Revised revenue expectations
Analysts now forecast 2025E revenue growth of 56.4% y/y, slightly lower than previous assumptions due to moderated voice growth and a slower-than-expected subscriber rebound.
- ARPU: projected to rise 45% y/y to NGN5,053.55
- Subscribers: expected to grow 7.1% y/y to 86.61 million
- Data revenue: +71.2% y/y, accounting for 51.8% of total revenue
- Voice revenue: +52.5% y/y, accounting for 32%
Costs and margins
Improved macro conditions and cost efficiencies support an upward revision of EBITDA margin to 51.6%, from an earlier estimate of 50.4%.
Finance costs
A significant 70.7% drop in net finance costs to NGN389.84 billion is projected, anchored by a strong FX position and higher finance income.
Earnings outlook
Analysts now expect 2025E EPS of NGN53.31, a sharp recovery from 2024 when MTN reported a loss per share of NGN19.10.
Valuation and Forward Outlook
MTN’s operating leverage is expected to rise to 2.89, meaning that every 1% increase in revenue could drive nearly a 3% rise in operating profit—an indication of a more responsive earnings structure.
The revised NGN616.07 target price is based on an 80/20 blend of DCF and sector-relative metrics.
- DCF estimates:
- FCFF: NGN683.45/share
- FCFE: NGN498.66/share
- WACC: 22.2%
- Terminal growth: 4.0%
- Peer multiples (MEA region):
- EV/EBITDA valuation: NGN643.93/share
- P/E valuation: NGN788.29/share
Meanwhile, the interim dividend of NGN5.00/share keeps the projected 2025 DPS at NGN15.50/share, offering a 3.3% dividend yield.
Experts note that MTNN’s valuation—8.9x P/E and 4.5x EV/EBITDA—is still trading at a significant discount to its 5-year historical averages and presents a compelling investment opportunity.
Analyst Verdict
With a stronger cash flow profile, improved operational efficiency, and sustained demand for data services, MTN Nigeria is positioned for continued re-rating into year-end. Experts emphasize that if macroeconomic stability holds, MTNN could outperform targets even beyond 2025.
Experts hail MTN Nigeria’s 9M-25 results showing 57.5% revenue growth and a 51.4% EBITDA margin. Analysts raise target price to NGN616 amid strong data demand, cost efficiencies, and improved cash flows.
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