As Nigeria steps into 2026, economist Dr.Ayo Teriba has projected a brighter economic horizon for the country, driven primarily by sound policy measures rather than external factors. Speaking on ARISE News, Dr. Teriba highlighted three key areas for discussion: the economic outlook, budget benchmarks, and taxation – placing emphasis first on the outlook for growth.
“In my view, Nigeria’s economic performance in 2026 should exceed government projections,” Dr. Teriba said. He noted that multilateral agencies have forecast stronger growth for Nigeria even as they revise global economic growth downward, signaling optimism for Africa’s largest economy.
Reflecting on history, Dr. Teriba drew a parallel with 2006, when the Nigerian economy saw a five-fold increase in the stock market, a stronger naira, stable inflation, and accelerated growth – before the 2008-2009 global financial crisis disrupted progress. Unlike 2006, where global commodity prices drove gains, 2026’s potential growth is policy-driven, anchored in exchange rate stability and disinflation.
“The deceleration of inflation observed throughout 2025 is particularly encouraging,” Dr. Teriba said. “Inflation, which stood at 14.45% in November 2025, could fall to single digits by February 2026 and remain stable throughout the year.”
He also offered a critical perspective on official projections, suggesting that government estimates for inflation and the exchange rate may be conservative. “The naira ended 2025 below ₦1,500 to the dollar. Based on current trends and a seven-fold growth in net foreign reserves, the rate could potentially fall below ₦1,000,” he added.
Experts have welcomed Dr. Teriba’s analysis. Celestine Ukpong, economist, commented, “Dr. Ayo’s projections are credible and data-driven. Inflation control and net reserves growth are key indicators that can stabilize the economy and attract investment.”
Peter Adebayo, FCA, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the role of policy in driving growth. “A stable exchange rate and controlled inflation will boost investor confidence, stimulate local and foreign investments, and provide a foundation for sustainable economic growth,” he said.
As Nigeria prepares for a new fiscal year, Dr. Ayo’s outlook suggests a potentially transformative year in 2026, driven by policy and economic fundamentals rather than luck – a modern-day reflection of the optimism last seen in 2006.
Nigeria’s 2026 economic outlook is set for growth, with Dr. Ayo Teriba forecasting single-digit inflation and exchange rate stability. Experts Celestine Ukpong and Peter Adebayo weigh in on policy-driven gains.
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