50% Electric in 20 Years? Experts Weigh In on Wale Tinubu’s Davos EV Prediction for Nigeria

When Wale Tinubu, Group Chief Executive of Oando Plc, told a global audience in Davos that over 50% of Nigeria’s vehicles could be electric within the next 20 years, the statement immediately stood out—not just for its ambition, but for its source. Coming from the head of a major oil and gas company, the prediction signalled a notable shift in how industry leaders are thinking about Nigeria’s transport and energy future.
Yet, as analysts point out, the road from aspiration to reality in Nigeria is rarely smooth.

Tinubu’s argument rests on a mix of global and local trends. China’s large-scale production of electric vehicles (EVs) is steadily driving down costs. Fuel prices in Nigeria continue to rise, making petrol-powered transport increasingly expensive. The country also possesses vast gas reserves that, if properly harnessed, could support cheaper electricity generation. On the ground, startups such as MAX, Spiro, Jet Motor Company and Roam are already deploying electric motorcycles, tricycles and buses, while Chinese brands like BYD and Chery are entering Nigerian showrooms.
According to Tinubu, these forces together create momentum that could tip Nigeria toward mass electrification.
But how realistic is this projection?

Economics vs Infrastructure

Celestine Ukpong, an economist, argues that the economic logic behind EV adoption is compelling but incomplete. “From a cost perspective, EVs make increasing sense for Nigeria, especially for commercial operators who are hit hardest by fuel price volatility,” Ukpong said. “However, economics alone do not drive systemic change. Infrastructure is the binding constraint.”
Ukpong noted that Nigeria currently has fewer than 10,000 fully electric cars out of an estimated 12 million vehicles nationwide. Annual vehicle sales, between 400,000 and 500,000 units, are dominated by used imports. “Without a reliable power grid and widespread charging infrastructure, mass private adoption of EVs remains aspirational,” he added.

This concern is echoed across the industry. Charging stations are scarce beyond pilot projects, while the national grid remains unreliable, forcing households and businesses to depend on generators. As one analyst put it, selling EVs in Nigeria today is like selling refrigerators in a community without stable electricity—a paradox Nigerians already live with daily.

Power Sector: The Deciding Factor
Tinubu’s optimism hinges largely on the assumption that Nigeria will finally succeed in converting its gas reserves into affordable, widely distributed electricity. That, however, requires sustained capital investment, regulatory reform and technical capacity—areas where progress has historically been slow.

Peter Adebayo, FCA, a financial analyst, believes Tinubu’s projection should be viewed as a long-term scenario rather than a near certainty. “Twenty years gives room for significant change, but only if policy consistency is maintained,” Adebayo said. “Fuel subsidy removal is a painful but achievable reform. Fixing the power sector is a far more complex undertaking that Nigeria has struggled with for decades.”

According to Adebayo, the financial ecosystem will also play a critical role. “For EVs to reach anything close to 50% penetration, you need affordable financing, incentives, and a clear regulatory signal that the future favours electric mobility,” he explained. “Without that, adoption will remain fragmented.”

Where the Transition Could Work

Despite the challenges, experts agree that parts of Tinubu’s vision are already unfolding. Commercial transport is leading the transition, particularly electric motorcycles and tricycles used for logistics and ride-hailing. These vehicles can be charged overnight or through solar-powered and generator-backed systems, making them viable even with an unreliable grid.

Electric buses could be the next frontier.

Analysts suggest that cities like Lagos and Abuja could mandate EVs for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, supported by centralised charging depots. This model limits infrastructure demands by focusing on controlled fleets rather than millions of private vehicles.

Ukpong sees this as the most realistic pathway. “Fleet-based electrification allows Nigeria to capture the benefits of EVs—lower operating costs and reduced emissions—without first solving every power sector problem,” he said.
Private car adoption, however, is expected to remain concentrated among upper-income consumers who can afford both the vehicles and charging solutions such as solar systems and home chargers. While this segment is growing, it is unlikely to drive mass adoption on its own.

The Bigger Picture

If Nigeria were to overcome its power challenges, the impact would extend far beyond transportation. Reliable electricity would unlock growth in manufacturing, healthcare, cold-chain logistics and other sectors currently constrained by diesel dependence. EV adoption would then become part of a broader economic transformation rather than an isolated trend.

Adebayo cautions, however, that policy choices around Nigeria’s existing vehicle fleet will be critical. “The country is flooded with ageing used cars. To shift the balance toward EVs, government will need to consider incentives for electric vehicles, higher duties on combustion-engine imports, or stricter emissions standards,” he said.

A Vision Waiting for Execution

Twenty years ago, smartphones were rare in Nigeria. Today, mobile technology and digital finance are reshaping the economy. History shows that when value is clear and barriers are reduced, adoption can be rapid.
EVs offer clear value in a country grappling with high fuel costs. Infrastructure remains the decisive barrier.

If Nigeria builds reliable power and charging networks, Wale Tinubu’s Davos prediction could prove prescient. If not, electric motorcycles, buses and fleet vehicles will expand—but the idea of EVs making up half of Nigeria’s vehicles will remain a bold vision still waiting for execution.

Wale Tinubu predicts over 50% of Nigeria’s vehicles could be electric in 20 years. Economists Celestine Ukpong and Peter Adebayo FCA analyse the feasibility, infrastructure gaps and policy choices shaping Nigeria’s EV future.