Cardoso: Remittances Could Hit $1bn Monthly by 2026

Nigeria’s foreign exchange market is getting a fresh boost from its diaspora community, as remittances have surged threefold in just two months—from $200 million to $600 million monthly. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed the figures yesterday at the Delta State–Brazil Business and Investment Roundtable in São Paulo, Brazil, predicting that monthly inflows could reach $1 billion by 2026 if current trends persist.

Cardoso credited the spike to the CBN’s ongoing reforms aimed at streamlining remittance processes, closing loopholes, and restoring trust among Nigerians abroad. “Our exchange rate is becoming a lot more competitive. Diasporans who once felt compelled to seek alternative routes to send money home are now using official channels, which are transparent and efficient,” he said.

Flashback: Failed Attempts to Harness Remittances

Nigeria’s history with diaspora remittances has been marked by inconsistency and failed experiments. In 2020, under then-Governor Godwin Emefiele, the CBN launched the much-publicized “Naira 4 Dollar” incentive scheme, promising N5 rebate for every dollar sent through official channels. While the scheme briefly lifted inflows on paper, it was widely criticized as unsustainable. Many diasporans bypassed the system due to restrictive processes, poor trust in Nigerian banks, and more attractive rates offered by black-market operators.

Earlier policies also faltered. For instance, efforts to compel international money transfer operators (IMTOs) to pay beneficiaries only in naira backfired, as recipients resisted, insisting on dollar payouts. Instead of boosting official inflows, the measure drove transactions underground, strengthening informal transfer networks and depriving Nigeria of billions in potential FX earnings.

The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the crisis. With tighter controls and dwindling FX supply, many Nigerians abroad resorted to cryptocurrency transfers and hawala-style informal channels. The result: official remittances plummeted, while parallel market operators thrived.

Cardoso’s Approach: Reform Over Gimmicks

Unlike past interventions, Cardoso’s CBN has focused on structural reforms rather than short-term incentives. By widening access through global fintech firms, reducing bottlenecks with IMTOs, and improving the competitiveness of the official exchange rate, the apex bank has rebuilt credibility in the system. Analysts say the recent tripling of inflows reflects renewed trust by the diaspora community that funds sent home will be received safely, quickly, and at fair value.

Beyond Oil Dependence

The significance of this remittance surge goes beyond numbers. With oil revenues still vulnerable to price shocks and theft, diaspora remittances are emerging as Nigeria’s most stable source of foreign exchange. Cardoso stressed that these inflows are diversifying Nigeria’s FX portfolio, cushioning reserves, and easing pressure on the naira.

Will This Be Different?

Skeptics caution that Nigeria has seen similar surges before, only for policy reversals and inefficiencies to erase the gains. They argue that sustaining the new trajectory will require policy consistency, transparency, and better collaboration between the CBN, banks, and the diaspora community.

For now, however, the threefold rise in remittances is being celebrated as one of the clearest signs that CBN reforms may finally be working. If projections hold, and $1 billion in monthly inflows is achieved by 2026, Nigeria could be witnessing the dawn of a long-awaited breakthrough—turning remittances from a missed opportunity into a backbone of economic resilience.

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