Nigeria’s 2026 Economic Outlook: From Reform Stabilisation to the Growth Imperative

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 took centre stage on Tuesday as financial journalists, economists and policy stakeholders converged at the Financial Institutions Correspondents Association of Nigeria (FICAN) Secretariat for a key capacity-building forum under the 2025/26 Economic Review and Outlook series. The session provided a timely platform to assess the impact of recent reforms and interrogate the country’s readiness to transition from stabilisation to sustained growth amid rising fiscal pressures.

The forum was chaired and formally opened by the National Chairman of FICAN, Mr. Chima Titus Nwokoji, before the keynote presentation by Mr. Adetilewa Adebajo, Chief Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, who unveiled the firm’s 2026 Economic Outlook.

Presenting the outlook, Mr. Adebajo projected Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at about 5 percent in 2026, driven by expectations of easing inflation into single digits, a moderation in monetary policy with the benchmark interest rate projected at 20 percent, and relative stability in the foreign exchange market. He said the naira is expected to trade within the range of ₦1,400 to ₦1,500 per US dollar.

According to him, the projections reflect an economy gradually stabilising after nearly three years of difficult reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and adjustments to the foreign exchange regime. However, he warned that Nigeria has reached a critical point where reform-induced stability must give way to productivity-led expansion if the benefits of policy changes are to reach ordinary citizens.

Mr. Adebajo stressed that for Nigeria to meaningfully improve living standards and reduce widespread poverty, the economy must grow at between 8 and 10 percent annually. He noted that without a decisive shift toward higher and more inclusive growth, recent reforms risk delivering limited social and economic impact, despite their macroeconomic gains.

Beyond the growth outlook, CFG Advisory raised serious concerns about fiscal sustainability, describing it as Nigeria’s most pressing economic challenge. Mr. Adebajo disclosed that the country’s cumulative budget deficit over the past three years has exceeded ₦50 trillion, with the 2026 fiscal deficit estimated at ₦23.85 trillion.

He also highlighted the rising burden of debt servicing, noting that debt service obligations in the 2026 budget are projected at ₦15.2 trillion, exceeding the combined allocation of ₦14.97 trillion for defence, security, education and health. According to him, this imbalance poses a significant risk to long-term development, as it limits the government’s capacity to fund capital projects and critical social investments.
Participants at the forum echoed concerns over the fiscal outlook and called for urgent policy actions to improve revenue generation, curb wasteful spending and strengthen fiscal discipline. They emphasised the need to consolidate reform gains by implementing productivity-enhancing policies and deepening collaboration between the public and private sectors.

The session concluded with a consensus that while Nigeria may be emerging from its most turbulent reform phase, the real challenge lies ahead. Converting macroeconomic stabilisation into inclusive growth, job creation and improved living standards will determine whether the reform era delivers lasting benefits for the country and its citizens.

Nigeria’s 2026 economic outlook projects 5% GDP growth as inflation eases and the naira stabilises, but experts warn that fiscal pressures and rising debt costs could undermine inclusive growth without stronger productivity-driven reforms.

Nigeria’s 2026 economic outlook signals stabilisation with 5% GDP growth, easing inflation and a steadier naira, but experts caution that rising deficits and debt servicing costs must be addressed to achieve inclusive growth.