Nigeria’s economic recovery narrative took centre stage as the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) convened stakeholders for its high-level forum themed “2025 Capital Market Review and Prognosis for 2026.” The event, held at 10:00 a.m. on Friday, January 30, at the FICAN Secretariat, 19 Bode Thomas, Onipan, Lagos, brought together market analysts, journalists and financial sector operators to reflect on the nation’s macroeconomic trajectory and investment outlook.
Delivering the keynote presentation, Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited, provided a comprehensive assessment of Nigeria’s economic performance in 2025 and the prospects that may shape capital market behaviour in 2026.
From Volatility to Gradual Stabilisation
According to Amolegbe, Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment in 2025 marked a transition from acute instability to gradual stabilisation, driven by sustained monetary tightening, foreign-exchange reforms, fiscal restructuring and critical statistical adjustments. Despite persistent global volatility fueled by geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence, reform-oriented emerging markets — including Nigeria — began attracting renewed investor attention.
Growth Resilience Amid Tight Financial Conditions
A major milestone highlighted during the CAMCAN session was the GDP rebasing exercise released in July 2025, which expanded economic measurement to better capture the services sector, ICT contributions and the informal economy. The recalibration offered a clearer and more robust picture of Nigeria’s productive landscape.
Economic growth remained resilient despite restrictive financial conditions. Real GDP growth rose from 3.13% year-on-year in the first quarter to 4.23% in the second quarter, before moderating slightly to 3.98% in the third quarter. More than 95% of this expansion was powered by the non-oil sector, underscoring ongoing diversification efforts. Oil production, however, stayed volatile, averaging 1.64 million barrels per day in Q3, thereby limiting its growth contribution despite its continued fiscal and foreign-exchange significance.
Inflation Eases, Policy Discipline Holds
Inflation dynamics improved materially during the year. Headline inflation, which stood at 34.8% in December 2024, declined sharply following the Consumer Price Index rebasing and exchange-rate stabilisation. By November 2025, inflation had eased to 14.45% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of moderation. Food and core inflation followed similar downward trends, reflecting reduced import cost pressures and currency appreciation effects.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained a firm policy stance, holding the Monetary Policy Rate at 27% to reinforce credibility, curb inflation and stabilise the foreign-exchange market. While this restrictive posture strengthened macroeconomic confidence, fiscal pressures persisted due to elevated domestic borrowing and rising debt-service obligations — factors that Amolegbe noted would require sustained tax reforms and enhanced revenue mobilisation.
Capital Market Signals and 2026 Prognosis
Within the capital market space, CAMCAN members noted that improved macroeconomic stability and moderating inflation created a more supportive backdrop for equities and fixed-income instruments. Market repricing, driven by renewed investor sentiment and institutional participation, reflected cautious optimism.
Looking into 2026, the outlook remains cautiously constructive. Amolegbe projected that improving macroeconomic fundamentals, gradual monetary recalibration, deepening capital market structures and sustained structural reforms could strengthen risk assets and attract broader foreign portfolio inflows.
Nonetheless, he warned that execution risks, external economic shocks and fiscal constraints remain critical watchpoints.
The CAMCAN forum ultimately positioned 2025 as a year of recalibration and regained confidence, with 2026 expected to test the durability of reforms and the resilience of Nigeria’s capital markets in a rapidly evolving global financial landscape.
CAMCAN hosts Nigeria’s 2025 Capital Market Review as Arthur Steven Asset Management CEO Olatunde Amolegbe highlights economic stabilisation, inflation moderation and a cautiously optimistic 2026 outlook.
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