Global Air Cargo Slides 4.8% as Middle East Conflict Offsets Strong Trade Growth — IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported a sharp downturn in global air cargo markets for March 2026, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly disrupted key logistics hubs and trade corridors.

According to the latest data released on April 29, total global air cargo demand—measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK)—declined by 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025, with international operations experiencing a steeper contraction of 5.5%. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), also fell by 4.7% year-on-year, reflecting the scale of operational disruptions affecting the industry.

Director General of IATA, Willie Walsh, attributed the decline largely to the fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which severely impacted major Gulf cargo hubs. He also noted that the seasonal slowdown following the Lunar New Year contributed to weaker demand.

Despite the downturn, Walsh emphasised that underlying market fundamentals remain resilient. Recent projections from global institutions indicate continued economic expansion in 2026, suggesting that the dip may be temporary. He added that air cargo networks are demonstrating flexibility in adapting to shifting supply chain dynamics driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff pressures, and operational challenges.

However, rising fuel costs are emerging as a major concern. Jet fuel prices surged by over 106% year-on-year in March, alongside a 43% increase in crude oil prices and a staggering 320% jump in refining margins—factors that could further strain airline profitability in the months ahead.

On the macroeconomic front, global industrial production expanded by 3.1% in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of growth, while global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year. Manufacturing sentiment also remained positive, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 51.4, indicating continued expansion.

Regional Performance Highlights

Performance across regions showed significant divergence:

Africa emerged as the standout performer, recording a 7.0% increase in cargo demand—the strongest globally—despite a 4.6% drop in capacity.

Asia-Pacific carriers saw demand grow by 5.4%, supported by robust regional trade.

European airlines recorded a 2.2% increase in demand, although capacity rose faster at 4.2%.

Latin America and the Caribbean posted modest growth of 1.8%.

North America experienced a slight decline of 1.2% in demand.

The Middle East suffered the most severe hit, with demand plunging by 54.3% and capacity dropping by 52.4%, underscoring the extent of disruption in the region.

Trade Lane Trends

Air cargo flows varied sharply across key trade routes. Africa–Asia led growth with a 22.6% increase, marking nine consecutive months of expansion. Asia–Europe and intra-Asia routes also remained strong.

Conversely, trade lanes linked to the Middle East saw dramatic contractions. Europe–Middle East traffic dropped by 57.6%, while Middle East–Asia routes declined by 58.6%, reflecting the direct impact of regional instability on global logistics networks.

Industry analysts note that while current disruptions have created short-term volatility, the broader outlook for air cargo remains cautiously optimistic, supported by resilient trade growth and adaptive supply chain strategies.

As the industry navigates geopolitical uncertainty and rising operational costs, attention will remain focused on fuel price trends and the ability of global cargo networks to maintain efficiency under pressure.

Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March 2026 as the Middle East conflict disrupted key trade routes, with IATA warning of rising fuel costs and ongoing volatility.

IATA reports a 4.8% decline in global air cargo demand for March 2026 due to Middle East disruptions, despite strong global trade growth and resilient market fundamentals.