….Economist Celestine Ukpong and FCA expert Peter Adebayo describe NGX Group’s record performance as “structural re-rating of confidence,” as Nigeria’s exchange ecosystem posts historic gains across earnings, liquidity, and market capitalisation.
The remarkable rally of the Nigerian Exchange Group Plc—which has surged about 474% year-on-year, trading around ₦160 per share as of early May 2026 after hitting a ₦188 peak in March 2026—has continued to draw strong reactions from financial experts, who say the performance reflects a deeper structural shift in Nigeria’s capital market.
Speaking in response to an Ameh News inquiry on the market implications of NGX Group’s earnings momentum and share price rally, economist Celestine Ukpong described the development as “a classic case of delayed valuation correction meeting institutional liquidity expansion.”
“What we are seeing is not speculative euphoria alone. It is a re-pricing of confidence in Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure. NGX Group is benefiting from increased trading volumes, improved transparency, and stronger macroeconomic signals that are pulling both domestic and foreign investors back into equities,” Ukpong said.
Strong Fundamentals Behind the Rally
NGX Group’s FY 2025 and Q1 2026 results provide the backbone for the rally:
FY 2025 Profit Before Tax: ₦15.6 billion (+14.3% YoY)
Core Revenue: ₦22.9 billion (+36% YoY)
Operating Profit: ₦11.8 billion (+44.4% YoY)
Earnings Per Share: ₦4.75
Q1 2026 Pre-tax Profit: ₦5.98 billion (+140.5% YoY)
Q1 2026 Revenue Growth: +102.9% YoY
Market analysts note that the acceleration in Q1 2026 earnings suggests that the growth trajectory is not only sustained but also strengthening into the new financial year.
Shareholder Returns and Market Confidence
At its 65th Annual General Meeting in April 2026, NGX Group approved a significant shareholder reward structure:
Dividend payout: ₦3.00 per share (a 50% YoY increase)
Bonus issue: 1-for-3 share distribution
Qualification date: April 10, 2026
Financial expert and Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (FCA), Peter Adebayo, described the payout structure as “a strategic balance between rewarding investors and preserving capital for expansion.”
“The bonus issue is particularly significant. It signals that management is confident about future earnings capacity. When combined with rising revenue and profit expansion, it strengthens the long-term valuation case for NGX Group,” Adebayo explained.
Broader Market Momentum Reinforces the Story
The rally in NGX Group is unfolding alongside one of the strongest bull cycles in Nigeria’s recent market history:
The NGX All-Share Index crossed 200,000 points in April 2026
Market capitalisation rose to approximately ₦156 trillion
2025 market turnover hit ₦11.23 trillion, up 101% year-on-year
The All-Share Index returned 51.19% in 2025, ranking Nigeria among the world’s top-performing equity markets
These indicators point to a market experiencing renewed liquidity depth and stronger participation from institutional and foreign investors.
Experts: Structural Shift, Not Short-Term Rally
Both experts cautioned against interpreting the rally as purely speculative.
Ukpong emphasised macroeconomic stabilisation and policy alignment as key drivers:
“Foreign portfolio investors are responding to improved FX clarity and regulatory reforms. That is feeding directly into capital market confidence.”
Adebayo added that technology-driven efficiency within the exchange ecosystem is also playing a role:
“Market infrastructure improvements, faster settlement cycles, and digitisation of trading systems are reducing friction. That naturally supports higher valuations for the exchange itself.”
NGX Group as a Capital Market Barometer
Analysts increasingly view NGX Group not just as a listed entity, but as a barometer of Nigeria’s capital market health.
Its performance reflects:
Rising investor confidence
Improved market liquidity
Expanding institutional participation
Stronger earnings visibility across the financial infrastructure
Outlook
With sustained earnings growth, record index levels, and deepening market participation, analysts believe NGX Group’s trajectory will continue to mirror the broader evolution of Nigeria’s financial markets into a more liquid and globally integrated system.
As Celestine Ukpong summarised:
“This is no longer just a recovery story. It is a transition into a more mature capital market architecture.”
NGX Group shares surge 474% as economists Celestine Ukpong and FCA expert Peter Adebayo say Nigeria’s capital market is undergoing a structural re-rating driven by rising liquidity, strong earnings, and record NGX All-Share Index performance.
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